TinkerOrders and delivery at T 1: shown 89% sure on average, right 85%; 0 handed over. Plan total: 0 of 25.
Chapter 7 of 7
Workbench: a dial and a line per kind
The desk handles three kinds of question: orders, refunds and billing, and products. The assistant is not equally sure of each.
This chapter: What temperature and hand-over line should each kind of question get?
About this chapter
You will learn
- How to set the dial so shown confidences are honest
- How to set the line so few wrong answers go out
- Why the best plan differs by kind
Words you’ll meet
- Plan
- A temperature and a hand-over line for each kind of question.
- Workbench
- The chapter’s free-play bench: change the plan and see every result.
Step 1 of 2
Rules: at most 10% wrong per kind, honest confidence shown, 25 hand-overs a day. Best: 23.
Change the on the .
0 of 3 kinds keep the rules · 0 of 25 hand-oversBEST IS 23
| Kind | Wrong sent | Shown, right | Handed over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orders and deliveryT 1, hand over none | 3 of 20 ✗ | 89% vs 85% ✓ | 0 |
| Refunds and billingT 1, hand over none | 5 of 20 ✗ | 87% vs 75% ✗ | 0 |
| Product questionsT 1, hand over none | 6 of 20 ✗ | 90% vs 70% ✗ | 0 |
A customer may get a wrong answer at most one time in ten, per kind of question. The confidence shown beside each answer must be honest: within each kind, the average confidence at most 5 points from how often the answers are right. The two people on the help desk can take 25 hand-overs in a day.
A stand-in: sixty answers and their confidences were written for this site to show a pattern published research reports. They are not a real model’s.