Tinker Calibration

by Samy (Kondasamy Jayaraman) · drawn with Colorfigures by April Zhu

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Chapter 4 of 7

One dial

The team likes the fine-tune’s style and won’t retrain it. Can its confidence be repaired after the fact instead?

This chapter: Can one number make an overconfident model honest again?

About this chapter

You will learn

  • How temperature softens or sharpens every confidence
  • Why the top guess never changes
  • Why you set it on one half and check it on the other

Words you’ll meet

Temperature
A number the model’s scores are divided by before they become probabilities. Above 1 softens them.
Temperature scaling
Fixing a model’s confidence by choosing one temperature on held-out text, without retraining it.
Log loss
How surprised the model was by the real next piece, on average. Lower is better; it punishes sure mistakes hard.

Step 1 of 4

: the model’s scores are divided by it before they become probabilities. Above 1, every confidence softens.

Predict first.

Turn the temperature from 1 up to 2. What happens to the fine-tune’s top guesses?