Tinker Calibration

by Samy (Kondasamy Jayaraman) · drawn with Colorfigures by April Zhu

60 answers by the assistant, waiting to be sorted by the confidence each stated.

Chapter 1 of 7

What 70% should mean

Larkspur’s support assistant tells customers how sure it is of each answer. The support team asks when those numbers can be trusted.

This chapter: What does a stated confidence promise, and does the assistant keep it?

About this chapter

You will learn

  • What a calibrated confidence means
  • How jars sort answers by the confidence they stated
  • How to spot a jar that claims too much

Words you’ll meet

Confidence
How sure a model says it is, from 0% to 100%.
Calibrated
Its confidences mean what they say: of the answers it gives 70%, about seven in ten are right.
Jar
Here, the answers that stated about the same confidence, gathered so you can count how many were right.

Step 1 of 4

60 past answers, each with the the assistant stated. means 70% sure is right seven times in ten.

Predict first.

Of the answers it stated 80% to 90% sure, how many were right?